Midterms 2026Answers · Campaigns
How do campaigns decide which states to spend time in?
They go where the next vote is most likely to change the outcome. That usually means competitive places, not the ones a candidate is sure to win or sure to lose. A campaign has limited time and money, so every visit and every dollar is a bet.
The basic logic
Think of each place as having a payoff. Three questions drive it:
- How close is it? A state where the result could go either way is worth far more than one that's lopsided
- How many votes can still move? Some places are full of persuadable voters, others are locked in
- How much does it cost? An expensive media market or a huge state takes more resources to move
Campaigns combine those answers into a ranking and spread their effort accordingly. In practice, that means safe places get little attention and competitive ones get a lot.
Why safe states get ignored
If a candidate will win a state by a wide margin, extra visits don't change anything. If they'll lose by a wide margin, they don't either. That's frustrating for voters in those places, but it's the logic of spending scarce resources.
Candidates still visit safe places for other reasons, such as fundraising, meeting donors and appearing in national media.
What changes the plan
A map is never fixed. Campaigns adjust as the race develops:
- New information from their own surveys
- A rival's move into a place they thought was quiet
- Early signs that a region is warming up or cooling off
- Money coming in faster or slower than expected
I think the best campaigns are the ones that notice shifts early and move resources before the other side does.
What I'd do
I'd start with a ranked list of places, keep a reserve for surprises, and be willing to leave somewhere that isn't working instead of throwing more money at it. Sunk cost is an easy trap in campaigns.
That's the core decision in Midterms 2026, a free iPhone game I made. You have 20 turns and a limited number of actions, and the map shows who leads each state. You have to decide where to open offices and hold rallies, and the computer-run rivals respond where you get close. It's a quick way to learn why a map of priorities beats trying to be everywhere.